I recently started to read Cabanes by French author Quentin Abel. This is an excellent read because the story is beautifully written and quite captivating. But more importantly, the novel is based on the so-called Meadows report that was published in the 70s.

This gave me the idea to start studying the original report. The latter uses a mathematical model to predict the future of our industrial society, given initial conditions and fixed parameters governing its evolution. To be more specific, the model tries to predict five quantities: population, resources, industrial capital, food production and pollution.

To do this, it models the interactions between these five quantities as a system of (non-linear) ordinary differential equations that can be solved by a computer. The original model designed by the four authors is quite complex but their conclusion is simple: given the pace of human society in the 70s – which has not decelerated since –, their model predicts a collapse for all of the five quantities that should happen during the 21st century. This would not mean the end of the world, barely the end of humanity; but this would definitely be the end of something that may be called the industrial society as we know it.

As I found the topic quite fascinating, I will probably enrich this post with a few mathematical details. I have also started a (GitHub project)[https://github.com/vincentsouveton/world3] in which I am trying to implement a simplified version of the World3 model. It is a good way to realize how sensitive it is to the feedback loops. It also illustrates the inevitable future decline described by the authors at the beginning of the 70s. Feel free to reach out if you have suggestions.

References

  • Abel Quentin. Cabanes. Editions de l’Observatoire, 2024.
  • Donella H. Meadows [and others]. The Limits to Growth; a Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York :Universe Books, 1972.